248-613-9583

Southeast Michigan Housing Report – October

Recently Reduced! Over 4500 square feet of living space.
October 20, 2017
3rd Quarter Southeast Michigan Housing Report – October 2017
November 14, 2017

 

Southeast Michigan

Millennials–Driven by their Dogs

 

Millennials are the largest generational group in the United States. As they are moving from 20-somethings to 30-somethings, they have become the most active buyer segment. One-third of buyers nationwide are millennials, and as they age, their motivations for buying are changing.

For years millennials have been flocking to urban areas. When responding to a National Association of REALTORS survey taken 5 years ago, 51% of millennials preferred to live in attached housing– condos, townhouses and lofts located close to where they worked and played. They have also valued their mobility over stability.

Over time, millennials have been shifting their preferences toward homes in the suburbs just outside of the cities. Those single family homes are more affordable, and more importantly, millennials want yards for their dogs. In a recent survey conducted on behalf of SunTrust Mortgage, 33% of millennials cited their dog as their number one motivator for purchasing a home. Getting married and the birth of a child were well behind at 25% and 19% respectively. Many who didn’t even own a dog indicated they wanted to have a yard for a dog they planned to get someday.

As they shift toward the suburbs, millennials still desire being close to work and play. Walkability, public transportation, and bike paths will continue to be important.

While their dogs are important today, for many, neighborhood schools and traditional 3 bedroom 2 bath homes like their parents owned will become important draws.

OCTOBER 2017 HOUSING REPORT Southeast Michigan

Summary

Sales

There were 4,407 closed single family home sales in September. While September sales were down 7% compared to September 2016, both 3rd quarter and year-to-date sales were only down by 2% from last year.

Closed Prices

With a year-to-date average sale price of $217k, closed values were up 6% and average $/SF was up by 7% above YTD figures through September of last year.

Likewise, 3rd quarter numbers were up 6%.

Inventory

With over 12,000 available listings heading into the fourth quarter, inventory levels were up slightly from the prior month, but down 29% compared to the 17,000 Southeast Michigan single family listings available at this time last year. This shortage of supply is projected to continue through this year and through 2018.

Months of Supply

Heading into October there was a 2.5 month supply of available homes. Supply levels vary dramatically by price range. For example, there was less than 2 months supply for homes priced under $200k, and over 15 months of supply for homes priced over $800k. High-end sellers have to compete hard to catch the attention of luxury buyers.

Market Times

Across all price ranges, the best houses have been selling quickly so long as they are priced right and move-in ready. For sales closed in September, the average market time was 31 days (21% faster than September 2016). Within the different price brackets, market times varied from 25 days for homes priced under $200k to 90 days for homes priced over $800k. Even that 90 days for high-end homes is a significant improvement compared to the 143 days in September of 2016.

 

Oakland County

Single Family Homes

$294K

YTD AVG SALE PRICE

+8% from last year

4,265

AVAILABLE HOMES

0% from last month 1,549

NEW PENDINGS

-5% from last month

13,009

YTD CLOSED SALES

-2% from last year $1,448(M)

Q3 DOLLAR VOLUME

+2% from last year

e Price Range              Field    Sep ‘173rd Q ‘173rd Q ‘16‘17 vs ‘16
AllAvailable 4,265 4,265 4,631-8%
Closed 1,435 4,838 5,079-5%
Months Supply3.02.62.7-3%
Avg. Sale Price 295,251 299,278 280,7697%
$ Vol (million) 424 1,448 1,4262%
$10-200kAvailable 815 815 1,005-19%
Closed 513 1,654 1,972-16%
Months Supply1.61.51.5-3%
Value Change8%
Available1512 1,5121659-9%
Closed 646 2,218 2,271-2%
$200-400kMonths Supply2.32.02.2-0.1
Value Change6%
$400-800kAvailable 1,365 1,365 1,3491%
Closed 238 846 70720%
Months Supply5.74.85.7-15%
Value Change2%
Available 573 573 6180
Closed 38 120 129-7%
$800k+Months Supply15.114.314.40%
Value Change1%

Summary

Prices have been up, and inventory has been picked over resulting in fewer sales.

Average sale price was up 8% compared to the same time last year. Moving through the 4th quarter, average price and closed price/SF will drop. That drop won’t be an indication of declining value. It will simply be an indication that the general quality of the available inventory is limited. As we move through winter, it will be more difficult to find comps for the premium homes which will continue to fetch elevated prices.

With 14 months of supply, higherend homes have been taking longer to sell. Their values have increased just 1% since last year.

OCTOBER 2017

HOUSING REPORT

Macomb County

Single Family Homes

$188K

YTD AVG SALE PRICE

+8% from last year

2,279

AVAILABLE HOMES

+1% from last month 1,042

NEW PENDINGS

-2% from last month

8,518

YTD CLOSED SALES

-8% from last year $605(M)

Q3 DOLLAR VOLUME

-1% from last year

e Price Range              Field    Sep ‘173rd Q ‘173rd Q ‘16‘17 vs ‘16
AllAvailable 2,279 2,279 2,413-6%
Closed 946 3,153 3,354-6%
Months Supply2.42.22.20%
Avg. Sale Price 195,837 191,760 182,3545%
$ Vol (million) 185 605 612-1%
$10-175kAvailable 887 887 1,133-22%
Closed 496 1,678 1,880-11%
Months Supply1.81.61.8-12%
Value Change10%
Available824 8247638%
Closed 367 1,203 1,228-2%
$175-350kMonths Supply2.22.11.90.1
Value Change5%
$350-650kAvailable 494 494 44212%
Closed 75 260 23312%
Months Supply6.65.75.70%
Value Change2%
Available 74 74 750
Closed 8 12 13-8%
$650k+Months Supply9.318.517.37%
Value Change7%

Summary

Compared to the 3rd quarter of last year, 2017 prices were up 5%, and inventory and closed units were both down 6%.

As we move through the 4th quarter, average prices and    price/SF will drop because of the limited quality of the picked-over inventory.  This will make it more difficult to find comps for premium homes which will continue to fetch elevated prices.

Higher-end markets have seen a 7% increase in value over the past year. But heading into the 4th quarter, these sellers face 18 months of supply.  They will need to be competitive with their pricing.

Wayne County

Single Family Homes

$156K

YTD AVG SALE PRICE

+5% from last year

4,088

AVAILABLE HOMES

-1% from last month 1,696

NEW PENDINGS

-2% from last month

13,324

YTD CLOSED SALES

+4% from last year $817(M)

Q3 DOLLAR VOLUME

+10% from last year

e Price Range              Field    Sep ‘173rd Q ‘173rd Q ‘16‘17 vs ‘16
AllAvailable 4,088 4,088 4,912-17%
Closed 1,543 4,899 4,7743%
Months Supply2.62.53.1-19%
Avg. Sale Price 164,817 166,676 156,1547%
$ Vol (million) 254 817 74510%
$10-100kAvailable 1,908 1,908 2,083-8%
Closed 541 1,706 1,893-10%
Months Supply3.53.43.32%
Value Change3%
Available1004 1,0041763-43%
Closed 576 1,798 1,61411%
$100-200kMonths Supply1.71.73.3-0.5
Value Change4%
$200-400kAvailable 718 718 752-5%
Closed 328 1,084 1,0186%
Months Supply2.22.02.2-10%
Value Change6%
Available 458 458 39715%
Closed 98 311 24925%
$400k+Months Supply4.74.44.8-8%
Value Change3%

Summary

Prices were up 5%, and although inventory was down 17% there were 3% more closed sales in the 3rd quarter this year compared to last year.

Despite lower inventory levels, mid-market ($200-$400k) had 6% more sales and a 6% value increase compared to the 3rd quarter last year.

Higher-end inventory levels were up 15%. With more homes to choose from, sales were up 25% and values rose 3% compared to the 3rd quarter last year.

 

Grosse Pointe

Single Family Homes

$345K

YTD AVG SALE PRICE

+8% from last year

196

AVAILABLE HOMES

0% from last month 93

NEW PENDINGS

0% from last month

690

YTD CLOSED SALES

-4% from last year $91(M)

Q3 DOLLAR VOLUME

+18% from last year

e Price Range              Field    Sep ‘173rd Q ‘173rd Q ‘16‘17 vs ‘16
AllAvailable 196 196 221-11%
Closed 85 267 24011%
Months Supply2.32.22.8-20%
Avg. Sale Price 350,611 340,710 320,2596%
$ Vol (million) 30 91 7718%
$10-200kAvailable 29 29 45-36%
Closed 22 58 60-3%
Months Supply1.31.52.3-33%
Value Change16%
Available58 5867-13%
Closed 35 113 1067%
$200-350kMonths Supply1.71.51.9-19%
Value Change11%
$350-700kAvailable 72 72 703%
Closed 21 80 6719%
Months Supply3.42.73.1-14%
Value Change10%
Available 37 37 39-5%
Closed 7 16 7129%
$700k+Months Supply5.36.916.7-58%
Value Change4%

Summary

With a year-to-date average sale price of $345k, Grosse Pointe values were up 8% over last year. Although inventory was about the same, yearto-date closed sales have been down 4%. Third quarter sales, however, were 11% higher than during the same period last year.

This year’s market performance has been a more consistent “slow and steady.” Last year there was a jump in the second quarter followed by a rapid decline.

Look for inventories to remain tight through the balance of this year and through all of next year. Values will continue to rise slowly, but average prices will be limited by picked-over inventory.

Detroit

Single Family Homes

$49K

YTD AVG SALE PRICE

+15% from last year

1,432

AVAILABLE HOMES

+1% from last month 363

NEW PENDINGS

-14% from last month

2,730

YTD CLOSED SALES

+26% from last year $52(M)

Q3 DOLLAR VOLUME

+41% from last year

e Price Range              Field    Sep ‘173rd Q ‘173rd Q ‘16‘17 vs ‘16
AllAvailable 1,452 1,452 1,808-20%
Closed 272 907 77817%
Months Supply5.34.87.0-31%
Avg. Sale Price 53,247 57,169 47,39821%
$ Vol (million) 14 52 3741%
$5-30kAvailable 660 660 936-29%
Closed 137 435 478-9%
Months Supply4.84.65.9-23%
Value Change12%
Available667 667748-11%
Closed 107 365 21371%
$30-100kMonths Supply6.25.510.5-48%
Value Change5%
$100-200kAvailable 52 52 54-4%
Closed 16 60 559%
Months Supply3.32.62.9-12%
Value Change7%
Available 73 73 704%
Closed 12 47 3247%
$200k+Months Supply6.14.76.6-29%
Value Change15%

Summary

Year-to-date there have been 26% more sales, and average prices are up 15% compared to last year.

Detroit demand keeps growing but sales and values continue to be limited by a shortage of    move-in-ready housing stock.

800 of the 907 single family sales closed in the 3rd quarter were priced below $100k. More than half of those were priced under $30k.

Detroit

Condos/Lofts

$217K

YTD AVG SALE PRICE

+6% from last year

121

AVAILABLE HOMES

+2% from last month 35

NEW PENDINGS

-9% from last month

242

YTD CLOSED SALES

-9% from last year $22(M)

Q3 DOLLAR VOLUME

+5% from last year

e Price Range              Field    Sep ‘173rd Q ‘173rd Q ‘16‘17 vs ‘16
AllAvailable 121 121 –
Closed 19 92 876%
Months Supply6.43.90.0
Avg. Sale Price 273,050 234,612 237,366-1%
$ Vol (million) 5 22 215%
$5-75kAvailable 11 11
Closed 6 17 21-19%
Months Supply1.81.90.0
Value Change17%
Available19 19
Closed 2 28 1947%
$75-200kMonths Supply9.52.00.0
Value Change-17%
$200-350kAvailable 45 45
Closed 5 27 28-4%
Months Supply9.05.00.0
Value Change-9%
Available 46 46
Closed 6 20 195%
$350k+Months Supply7.76.90.0
Value Change5%

Summary

As with Detroit’s single family market, there is a significant shortage of quality condos and lofts available in Detroit.

As sales of prime properties drive values up, more “not-so-prime” listings have hit the market with their sellers looking to cash in during the frenzy.

The YTD average $/SF was $156, but 65 (the top quarter) of this year’s sales sold for between $250 and $450/SF–or priced between $300k and $1.8m.

Downriver

Single Family Homes

$130K

YTD AVG SALE PRICE

+8% from last year

733

AVAILABLE HOMES

-7% from last month 402

NEW PENDINGS

-7% from last month

3,212

YTD CLOSED SALES

-2% from last year $162(M)

Q3 DOLLAR VOLUME

+5% from last year

e Price Range              Field    Sep ‘173rd Q ‘173rd Q ‘16‘17 vs ‘16
AllAvailable 733 733 873-16%
Closed 381 1,167 1,204-3%
Months Supply1.91.92.2-13%
Avg. Sale Price 137,327 138,959 128,3168%
$ Vol (million) 52 162 1545%
$10-75kAvailable 154 154 255-40%
Closed 71 215 323-33%
Months Supply2.22.12.4-9%
Value Change3%
Available209 209236-11%
Closed 123 364 392-7%
$75-125kMonths Supply1.71.71.8-5%
Value Change4%
$125-250kAvailable 248 248 2422%
Closed 152 481 38924%
Months Supply1.61.51.9-17%
Value Change5%
Available 122 122 140-13%
Closed 35 107 1007%
$250k+Months Supply3.53.44.2-19%
Value Change0%

Summary

Year-to-date values were up 8%. There has also been a shift in that there have been more           upper-middle and high-end homes sold, while the number of sales below $125k has been down.

While the sales mix contains more higher-priced homes, the average $/SF of those upper-end homes was about the same in the 3rd quarter as it was last year.

Livingston County

Single Family Homes

$274K

YTD AVG SALE PRICE

+5% from last year

768

AVAILABLE HOMES

-6% from last month 243

NEW PENDINGS

-9% from last month

2,181

YTD CLOSED SALES

-4% from last year $230(M)

Q3 DOLLAR VOLUME

-4% from last year

e Price Range              Field    Sep ‘173rd Q ‘173rd Q ‘16‘17 vs ‘16
AllAvailable 768 768 853-10%
Closed 244 835 885-6%
Months Supply3.12.82.9-5%
Avg. Sale Price 274,321 275,772 269,6512%
$ Vol (million) 67 230 239-4%
$10-200kAvailable 101 101 148-32%
Closed 66 217 263-17%
Months Supply1.51.41.7-17%
Value Change7%
Available238 238263-10%
Closed 97 346 355-3%
$200-300kMonths Supply2.52.12.2-10%
Value Change5%
$300-500kAvailable 301 301 314-4%
Closed 68 231 2281%
Months Supply4.43.94.1-5%
Value Change1%
Available 128 128 1280%
Closed 13 41 395%
$500k+Months Supply9.89.49.8-5%
Value Change-1%

Summary

Year-to-date average sale price has been up 5% compared to last year. Low inventories have caused a 4% decline in sales.

Sales in the “under $200k” market fell off 17% while “over $500k” sales increase 5% in the 3rd quarter. Having a mix with fewer low-end homes and more high-end sales creates an illusion that values are increasing more than they are. Closed $/SF was flat in the “over $300k” markets. It actually dropped 1% in the “over $500k” market.

With over 9 months of supply, high-end sellers face tough competition compared to “under $300k” sellers with only 2 months of supply. High-end Sellers need to price accordingly.

St. Clair County

Single Family Homes

$159K

YTD AVG SALE PRICE

+6% from last year

600

AVAILABLE HOMES

+2% from last month 186

NEW PENDINGS

-21% from last month

1,707

YTD CLOSED SALES

-1% from last year $111(M)

Q3 DOLLAR VOLUME

+12% from last year

e Price Range              Field    Sep ‘173rd Q ‘173rd Q ‘16‘17 vs ‘16
AllAvailable 600 600 770-22%
Closed 239 678 61410%
Months Supply2.52.73.8-29%
Avg. Sale Price 161,759 163,537 161,5011%
$ Vol (million) 39 111 9912%
$10-100kAvailable 105 105 185-43%
Closed 62 189 1805%
Months Supply1.71.73.1-46%
Value Change16%
Available200 200295-32%
Closed 112 304 25718%
$100-200kMonths Supply1.82.03.4-43%
Value Change7%
$200-400kAvailable 213 213 2140%
Closed 63 168 1605%
Months Supply3.43.84.0-5%
Value Change3%
Available 82 82 768%
Closed 2 17 170%
$400k+Months Supply41.014.513.48%
Value Change-10%

Summary

Despite the number of available homes being down 22%,         year-to-date sales have been about the same as they were last year and the average sale price was up 6%.

Third quarter inventory

shortages were greatest in the

“under $200k” price ranges where closed sales were up the most.

With 17 third quarter “over

$400k” sales, the average $/SF was down 10% and months supply

(14.5) was a little higher than last year. High-end sellers need to price competitively to attract a smaller pool of buyers.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *